Betting markets favor Biden over Trump in US presidential race


By Divya Chowdhury and Aaron Saldanha

Oct. 30 (Reuters) – Punters favor Joe Biden over Republican President Donald Trump in Tuesday’s U.S. election, with the Democratic candidate leading bets placed in the majority of battlefield states that decide the election, two aggregators said of the betting market.

New Zealand’s prediction market PredictIt has Biden leading the aggregate with 68 cents to Trump’s 39 cents, while UK betting firm Betfair Exchange gives Biden a 65 percent chance of victory versus Trump’s 35 percent.

Will Jennings, head of public engagement at PredictIt, said the odds had started to “break down a bit” in favor of Biden, who leads in 10 of 14 swing state markets.

On the Betfair Exchange, Biden leads seven of the 12 swing state markets.

“Importantly, Biden leads North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which sees him holding a 305-333 electoral college lead against Trump,” Jennings told Reuters Global Markets Forum Friday.

Paul Krishnamurty, political betting analyst at the Betfair Exchange, said he expected Biden to win by a landslide, “with over 330 electoral college votes.”

He said Trump’s electoral rival Hillary Clinton was at 73% at this point in 2016, but only rose 1.8% in opinion polls and Biden is much higher. advanced. Clinton won the popular vote of 2016, but lost the state-by-state electoral college tally.

Trump leads Biden in Florida at 54% and Georgia at 55%, according to the Betfair Exchange.

“Florida is still crucial, and close! An important thing to note, however, is that the state (of Florida) means a lot more to Trump than Biden,” Krishnamurty said.

“It’s almost unimaginable that Trump could win without it. While it’s not essential for Biden, (who) has various alternative paths that seem easier,” he added.

Jennings said Trump was struggling to match his 2016 victory margin in Georgia, which is a sign of “much bigger concerns on the map.”

“Few states understand how rapidly demographics are changing US policy than Georgia, which has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1992,” Jennings added.

Opinion polls show Biden has a significant advantage nationally. A Reuters / Ipsos poll on Wednesday showed Trump was essentially tied with Biden in Florida, with 49% saying they would vote for Biden and 47% for the president. (These interviews were conducted in the Reuters Global Markets Forum, a chat room on Refinitiv Messenger. Register here: Betfair Exchange odds of winner of US presidential election October 28, 2020

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