Smallcap BSE hit a 15-month high, rising 4% on Monday at the start of trading, as investors hoped for improved liquidity flow in those stocks after Sebi mandated multi-cap systems to allocate at least 25% each of their portfolio to large cap, mid cap and small cap companies. . BSE Midcap also gained 2% beating its benchmark which is constantly rising.
Analysts believe that flows will gravitate towards a handful of quality stocks in mid and small cap sectors, with investors also taking into account that in bad market cycles, when the declines are large, quality holdings upper will protect the decline. Edelweiss Securities Ltd believes that given the radical revival, potentially the entire small cap universe could experience a strong rally.
“Since 2010, each year, approximately 45 to 50% of small and mid caps in the top quartile are leaders in their category. And, the average market returns of the leaders outperform the others by a huge margin. We believe this will be a fundamental trait that investors will look at when reducing / changing flows, ”he said.
Others agree. “A complete rebalancing of all multi-cap assets under management (AUM) would have resulted in potential flows of $ 1.7 billion and $ 3.8 billion to mid and small caps (MFs should initially be add to existing holdings) – this would have had significant ramifications on stock prices, given the scarcity of some of these stocks. Non-MF investors may, in fact, have started hoarding these stocks in hopes of a price rally even before MFs make their decisions on how to handle the new rules, “analysts said. JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd.
However, the brokerage added that the need to gradually buy mid and small caps could be drastically reduced after Sebi later clarified that outside of portfolio rebalancing, mutual funds (MF) could also make it easier for unitholders to switch to other plans, merge Multi -cap with a large cap plan or convert it to another class of plan.
As mid and small cap stocks are fairly lightly traded, and entries into them may require several weeks of trading to achieve the required rebalancing and may take two to three months of continuous buying for multi-cap systems to achieve re balancing.
“In reality, MFs are unlikely to buy all of the 250 small cap stocks, but instead the additional investments would be in a subset that they deem worth investing in based on the house philosophies. respective funds. Another likely problem is that even before MFs start buying these stocks (if MFs are ultimately forced to do so), there could be many non-institutional stocks in some stocks in the hope that their prices will rise again. on time. over time because of the institutional buying actions that the circular could trigger, ”said JM Financials.
Analysts Vinod Karki and Siddharth Gupta, ICICI Securities believe that the risk tolerance of multi-cap fund investors will be tested as the risk of the portfolio increases and could impact flows after the new Sebi guidelines. “Size as a proxy for risk is validated with a deterioration in return on equity (ROE) as we move from large caps to micro caps and relatively weaker business models (although with a few exceptions) , which leads rational investors to assign adequate risk spread over large caps, “they said.
Mid- and small-cap stocks peaked in January 2018 and since then have been on a downtrend that has increased the spread of earnings of micro, small and mid-cap earnings over large caps to 460 points. base (bp), 180 bp and 110 bp currently.
Granted, from the March lows, BSE Smallcap rebounded 64.08% and BSE Midcap jumped 51% surpassing Sensex which gained 49.55% over the period. In 2017, the BSE SmallCap and BSE Midcap indexes rallied 60% and 48.13% respectively, leading to losses in subsequent years as stocks with no fundamental support lost strength as valuations peaked. At current levels, BSE Midcap is available at a 12-month price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21.75 times, BSE SmallCap at 18.69 and Sensex at 21.29 times.